Transcript for AI Antitrust Investigations, Nvidia Stock Split, and OpenAI Whistleblowers
SPEAKER_03
00:00 - 00:42
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SPEAKER_07
00:44 - 01:27
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SPEAKER_06
01:27 - 01:33
Hi, everyone. This is Pivot from New York Magazine in the box media podcast network. I'm Cara Swisher.
SPEAKER_03
01:33 - 01:34
And I'm Scott Galloway.
SPEAKER_06
01:34 - 01:35
I'm back in California, Scott.
SPEAKER_03
01:36 - 01:39
Wayway, it's you were there. You came back to DC and then when you went back to California.
SPEAKER_06
01:39 - 01:48
This is the third time in three weeks. I've been here. Someone's going, why do you do this yourself? I don't know because I don't know. I need a private plane, but that would be wrong.
SPEAKER_03
01:48 - 01:52
Why would it be wrong? Oh, it's so right, Kara. It's right as rain. Yeah, it's not for me.
SPEAKER_06
01:53 - 02:09
Um, I was doing this thing called Godmothers of AI at Stanford. It was a space family in a number of really prominent early women in AI. AI would just be a bad water. Guide mothers. AI used to be a backwater of computing.
SPEAKER_03
02:09 - 02:11
Well, we call the machine learning back when it was her dorks.
SPEAKER_06
02:12 - 02:47
Michelle's machine learning. Yes. Anyway, it wasn't the area where it was hot hot and now it is, of course. And so we were celebrating some of the early women, including eight of love lights who wasn't living. She was not there. But it was really cool. They fairly Barbara Gross. Karina Cortez, all these people who were super early and big, and they big. changes in AI at the beginning and still today. So it was cool. It was at the Stanford Institute on a human centered AI. It was cool. It was Stanford is way ahead in terms of ethics and they're trying very hard. So it was neat.
SPEAKER_03
02:49 - 03:14
40% of all venture capitalists, either graduated from Harvard and Stanford, and I bet 70% to 80% of all capital allocated. I would speculate. I know the 40% number. I'm speculating that 78% of gross dollar volume allocated by venture capitalists comes from graduates with Stanford and Harvard. So what do you know? A concierge healthcare system in Palo Alto gets funding, but anything around femme care does not get funding anyway.
SPEAKER_06
03:14 - 03:21
Well, these these women pointed out quite a number of the problems in in AI too. So it was great. It was great. It was a real it was a real privilege for me to do it.
SPEAKER_03
03:22 - 05:15
So speaking of women, I have, let's bring them to me. Oh, no. I love that. Oh, no. So you know those memories that Apple does where they spin up a video from your last, I hate them. Oh, no, I'm playing them on my death, but they typically involve my children and it's like, water works for me, but I love them. I think they're amazing. I think that is probably the portion of AI that's affected me the most other than Netflix triggering out what movie I want to watch next. But anyways, I had this memory come up, and it was, well, let me back up. I was on Pierce Morgan last week, and he asked me, who would you want to be president? And he asked me if I was running for president. I said no. And then I said, I had this word salad of senators, Klobuchar, Bennett, or Governor News. I was totally unprepared to answer the question. And I started thinking about it after who would be the best president of anyone I've ever met, ever. who would be who do I wish could be president and I thought about it and literally that day this apple memory came up they got me so fucking angry and it was from eight years ago and the answer is the person I canvas for in 2016 Hillary Clinton would have been standing president I saw you put that up I didn't know you would have been I didn't do stuff like that that's amazing but go ahead Oh my god, a canvassing for Hillary Clinton and in what I'll call the great inland empire of Florida was not fun. We're talking pit bulls and angry white people. I know that's identity politics, but I was talking myself when my son gets older, I got to bring him on this so he can get used to rejection and get some thick skin. Cause when you're banging on a door and a lower middle income neighborhood to talk about Hillary and you know, in that that moment, I realized she was going to lose because I would knock on the door.
SPEAKER_06
05:15 - 05:19
This is 2008, right? Correct. Yeah.
SPEAKER_03
05:19 - 06:33
No, 2016. Okay. 2016 when she was running against Trump and and I would knock on the door of a black household and they'd open the door and they would say thank you really nice and I'm like are you voting for For Madame Secretary Clinton, they're like, yeah, I'm like, do you know where you're pulling booth is? And they'd say, no, I'm like, oh, fuck, she's gonna lose. They aren't, they aren't gonna turn out. They're just humoring me. They feel good about her, but they're not gonna, they're not gonna show up to the polling station. In this video came up, and you want to talk about how important elections are. If she had been elected president, We wouldn't have, in my opinion, the runaway deficit spending we have on a very boring, but important topic because she is actually fiscally more modern and has more discipline than the majority of vast majority of Democrats. She is outstanding if you've seen her talk about Ukraine and Israel. She's incredibly pragmatic, and you know what else? One in five women, and this is probably my opinion, and there's a lot of things to be outraged about, but in terms of what really impacts people on a ground level in America right now. Slowly but surely, or I would say, crisply but surely, one in five women who need to terminate a pregnancy now have to leave their fate. That's right. And that just would not have happened.
SPEAKER_06
06:34 - 06:43
if president Hillary Clinton, we're not just that, it's got the yesterday, the Senate rejected, the Senate Republicans rejected a contraception as a federal right. But go ahead.
SPEAKER_03
06:43 - 07:03
She was the most qualified person. I mean, let's be clear. She triggers people. She's not likable. Um, she was more likable today because he's the most competent, experienced, intelligent, thoughtful, pragmatic person to have ever run for president. It is, you know, let me tell you.
SPEAKER_06
07:03 - 08:07
Two things, two things. One, if you go back and look at her predictions of Trump, there are spot on, like, you go back. That's just a little spot on, like, as if she knew exactly what was going to happen. And she describes it perfectly. Secondly, She threatened to jail her yesterday in an interview. He threatened to jail her again. And then the pretended he didn't say lock her up. He said, I never said that, but of course, then they bring out the videos of him saying lock her up. He's such a liar. And then he actually said, maybe I should, maybe that's what we should do is jail my end of amazing. So anyways, and thirdly, the take on her, I agree. I think she would have made a great president. The take on her, of course, among those people is always that she is among the group that likes forever wars. And that is the one thing that I think I disagree with her on a little bit more, and then maybe you did. But she would have been an excellent. I'm just saying that's the, well, the negative take obviously the Bill Clinton stuff and everything else, but that was more. That was not, it pales in comparison to Trump.
SPEAKER_03
08:08 - 09:20
Count me among the group of war hawks who believed that if it was a president Clinton, the Putin would have thought twice before pouring over the border. But yeah, but the Secretary Clinton was absolutely not afraid to use American force. And there's a reason why we have decided to spend more money on our military than All other nations combined are the top 10 biggest vendors combined and I think it's because unfortunately there are some very angry mean people out there who if and when they can we'll take our Netflix and our espresso by force the moment they feel they can. I don't I absolutely do not think Putin would have come over the border in Ukraine had a secretary had had the president been president Clinton and anyways beyond all of this I'm going to reverse engineer I think I literally think if we look back in history around the biggest errors in our society, I think we'll look at our entry into South East Asia and the sixties of the escalation there, I think the entry into Iraq was a fucking disaster and I think a real pivotal moment that has set us back dramatically. was not was was was a man. I'm Secretary Clinton not being elected president. I think sure about that.
SPEAKER_06
09:20 - 09:37
Well, that's interesting. I just say you're where it was being at the jailing thing. I haven't interviewed today. I believe it posted with a representative of Acasio Cortez. I'll send you a call. She she she talks about that she thinks he would jail her to. Anyway, it's a really, it's full of news, the interview, but that's, you know, just keep that on.
SPEAKER_03
09:37 - 09:41
I had to be honest. See behind bars, make a very good film, percent of it. No, it's not wrong.
SPEAKER_06
09:41 - 09:43
It's not wrong.
SPEAKER_05
09:43 - 09:44
It's not wrong.
SPEAKER_06
09:44 - 10:32
No, that is wrong. In all seriousness, God, he's talking about jailing people like Clinton, which is something he would do. Anyway, it won't be funny when he actually does it. New York could become the latest state to legally restrict social media for kids, speaking of restrictions, a tentative agreement, would force social media companies to do I with algorithms for children's content instead they have only to show post by accounts kids follow in order that they were posted. The legislation also prohibit platforms from setting notifications to minors during overnight hours. New York governor Kathy Hockel said she believes this regulation like social media less addictive for kids. This is something right up your alley Scott. Do you what do you think about the government coming in here? There might be I wonder if they'll be first, of course, that will be first amendment challenges here, but what is your thoughts on this?
SPEAKER_03
10:33 - 11:02
The way I express affection is with money, and I immediately sent Governor Hoco a contribution. I think that she's showing relationship here. I don't think anyone under the age of 16 should be on social media. What has done more damage to youth, pornography, alcohol? Like what's done more or social media? And these mendacious fox are claiming that they're worried about their first amendment rights. Anyone, I'm dealing with this right now.
SPEAKER_06
11:02 - 11:11
There's cigarette companies as Mark Benningov said to me so famously in that interview. There's cigarette companies and we regulate cigarettes. It's not your first, it's not your right to have cigarettes as join.
SPEAKER_03
11:11 - 11:17
Right, but not nearly as many people, 13 year olds were accessing cigarettes as they were our access to social media.
SPEAKER_02
11:17 - 11:20
So it's the worst.
SPEAKER_03
11:20 - 11:48
It's a parent who is dealing with this. You think, well, okay, just take the phone away and don't let your kid on snap or on Instagram, said no, no one who has kids. In less we collectively pass legislation, the band's phones and schools and age gates. I mean, really age gates, not this bullshit put in a date. We're going to continue. This is the thing we're going to regret most is what happened to our kids.
SPEAKER_06
11:48 - 13:40
So anyway, I think it's interesting because, you know, I think this should be a natural law too. I think it's this is nothing due to the first amendment. We regulate kids on the other side. Children driving, drinking, This is very similar and and and they will that that's what they're going to play this will probably go to the Supreme Court remind us I don't know why these companies would resist this particular thing but there will be elements that want to resist it and it's costly for them to do what they're doing but this is this the algorithms that's a problem showing post by the accounts kids follow is is is just it's can it's what they pick and then you know it just removes the algorithmic intensity around these kids that they get, you know, oh, you like this. You might like this. And I do tell that story of my son. He wanted to listen to Ben Shapiro to hear what he was saying. I said, great. You should listen to him. I think he's an idiot. But you should listen to him just so you can make your own decision. He was older. You may be 14, 15 at this point. And I said, I think you'll find him an idiotic, but go ahead. And he did, and then he found a meteotic, which is what happened Ben. Stop saying I prevented my son from seeing him. I did not. I wanted him to. And then what was problematic to me is how it then degenerated. And this is not Ben Shapiro's fault, into really disturbing and more. Yes, exactly. That's I don't know if it was entertaining or whoever it was, but it when I saw what it did generated into and I had a discussion with Susan we just talked about this. We ran YouTube. It was shocking that the algorithmic degeneration and down the rabbit hole and that was what I was disturbed about and I didn't quite know what to do because I wanted him to be able to sample this. person and decide on his own. But where it went was really disturbing as parent. It was quite an eye opening moment for me for sure.
SPEAKER_03
13:41 - 15:17
I just took a couple of things. I find a lot of Vens views disagreeable. I don't think it is the right word. He is an incredibly intelligent young man. He's also a very good business operator. I think anyone in high school who is on the debate team should absolutely tune in to Ventupiro to understand how he makes his arguments and how incredibly crisp and agile he is on his feet. I don't agree with Medihasan's views on certain issues, but I think young people who are interested in understanding critical thinking and arguing in debating should watch them because I think he's very intelligent and makes very forceful arguments. And the same is true of Ben. The thing about the algorithms is the following. Is it the algorithms? are there solely to create shareholder value and these in different amoral algorithms have figured out that rage and things that make you feel bad that you can't turn away from. Oh, you like Ben Shapiro, will you like Andrew Tate saying that women are property and you or you'll hate it so much so you won't be able to turn away from it. And it gets you to, oh, you're feeling bad about yourself. Well, tell you what, we're going to have this, we're going to have a, a video of a woman who is five, nine, 95 pounds talking about suicide because you're not going to be able to turn away from it. And before you know it, you're, you're, you're, you're normalizing. extremist radical self-harm ideas. These algorithms, and not like that, we blame the algorithms. It's the mendacious fox who know what the algorithms are doing that should be held accountable.
SPEAKER_06
15:18 - 16:39
Or they should show transparency of how they make them, the transparency and out the black box. So we know what they're doing. Anyway, we have to move on, but we are for this governor, hopeful. So here we are. Speaking of problematic content, speaking on the other side, ex users can now post view and share adult nudity and sexual content. Thanks to a new formalized policies. This is a road that Jack Dorsey thought about going down and pulled back from and thought about going down. But under the policies, X will now essentially produced and distributed adult pornographic content. Good luck controlling that X because you don't good in anything else. As long as property labeled and not prominently displayed, I don't know what that means, because again, they don't have the staff to control it. The platform will still prohibit content that's exploitative non-consensual and promote sexualization of minors on the last one they better because they will be in the world of hard if they don't. Adult material is also allowed under pre-Elon Twitter, although no official policy in place. They're just, you know, they're saying come one tomorrow. They're, it was there, but I gotta tell you, I've never seen so much pornography on on Twitter since he took over. It's really, it's all my feet, all my ads constantly when I go on there, which I don't very much at all anymore, but there's not a day that I know get 10 or 12 pornographic content that I is unwelcome and I can't figure out a way to stop it and make it go away.
SPEAKER_03
16:39 - 18:42
I'm a two minds on this. I think pornography, I think adults should be allowed to consume pornography. And I think as long as they understand caveat M.T. that there might be porn on the site and they're given the ability to opt out. I don't think there's anything wrong with it. I think adult content. There's even some data showing the pornography is not as harmful for teens. There's a lot of people believe. But anyways, what is the most frightening thing here? And let me back up, Tumblr was a porn site. In the moment they stopped pretending, people got so sick of them pretending it wasn't a porn site that they said, OK, and they were forced to take the porn down. And immediately went from a company that was acquired for 1.1 billion to a company that was eventually reacquired for $3 million. So porn works online. Some of the biggest sites in the world are porn companies. The top three global pornography sites each have more traffic than Amazon Netflix, TikTok, and an open AI. So I think pornography is something that I think that's fine as long as people know what they're in for. What is really problematic about Twitter as a relates to porn is that it's a slow incremental step to what Twitter is responsible. Twitter is responsible for 49%. of child sexual abuse content found across social media search engines and cloud services from 2017 to 2019. So if you believe this could be this free for all, it could be a dangerous step to and then in any layer in 230 protection. Twitter has a bigger problem here and that is, you know, this discontent, which is not only not only wrong, but it's dangerous and puts kids in harm's way. Half of it. I mean, Twitter has single-digit market share across social, but it has, it owns half of child sexual abuse content. That's not a good number for market share. So I'm sort of like, I'm a mixed mind here.
SPEAKER_06
18:42 - 18:57
It's bad for the product. It makes a product shittier and shittier. That's really, I agree. You should be able to do it, but I can't even tell you. It's a Nazi bar with pornography now. I just don't want to say. It's like, it would have a good luck with your pornography.
SPEAKER_03
18:57 - 19:25
I do. I would urge, I've asked you to do it, and I'll ask everyone else to do it. And that is what I do. People send me links to stories on X. that I can click on. I haven't posted on X in a year and I right back, I'm sorry. I'm not on X. Can you please send me the article directly? Yeah. Yep, you do. And you, I've constantly paired the statement, the you made. They kind of brought it home for me. Why are we painting this guy's fence? She's absolutely right. Why am I getting more clicks and more knees on answer?
SPEAKER_06
19:25 - 20:39
I have to see what they're up to because I talk about a lot more, but I would agree with you, hopefully. Last thing, someone's back speaking, I guess, who's back back again, Shane Smith, co-founder of Vice Media. A character is returning the forefront of vice news. He's kind of a little bit like the Adam Newman of content. It's much funnier though. As a correspondence, Smith was previously executive chairman of vice, which last year has filed for bankruptcy protection, laid off most of its staff. Many people blame Shane and his incredible spending. I was there to see a lot of it. Vice as it Smith will host a podcast for Bill Mars. club random studios. It'll it'll run on VICE's TV channels. Smith will also report a peer and other news networks with commentary on the 20 24 election. Oh, she's she ain't as a character. A lot of people do blame him for creating the mess that became vice media in the spending. I always thought it was an artisanal advertising business and not content business, but it was sort of in your face hipster. Like, I don't know. I'm sure more commentating and stuff like that. I don't know. What do you think? They can have to come back. He's got a lot of money out of that company. I don't know what to think. I mean, good luck, Shane. I guess.
SPEAKER_03
20:40 - 21:38
I don't know them well, but I like Shane Smith. I think he's a character. I think he's for lack of a better turn. I do think he's a bit of a visionary and a salesperson. And I think this was a story of convincing people that a company was something it wasn't. And it was just a media company addressing a valuable niche that should have never raised or received money at the valuation I did. And then I think probably some management miscuse and they couldn't, you know, the whole thing turned into a shit show, which is, I tell entrepreneurs sometimes, even if you can raise money, it's some crazy valuation. You do have an obligation to take it, but be thoughtful, there's no free launch when you raise money. I think at one point you raise money at like a $5 billion market capitalization. And then all of a sudden your investors are gonna realize they made a mistake and they're gonna get angry and it creates dysfunction and then you're employees and I'm not getting any money because my options were structural high. Anyways, but I didn't even know, I wasn't even sure vice was still around, but it's got a nice brand.
SPEAKER_06
21:38 - 21:56
That is a back in the day company. It was Shane Smith running it and they had a really cool headquarters, which I always was like, okay, this is where the money's going, right? It was, it was these beautiful headquarters and Williamsburg in Brooklyn, hipster out the Yin Yang. Some great shows, fuck that's delicious, everything else. They did a lot of really, some really cool shows.
SPEAKER_03
21:56 - 21:58
Oh, they did some outstanding shows.
SPEAKER_06
21:58 - 23:07
outstanding shows you had one there to this right i quit that show i thought it was so awful i remember it in any case they had to go back to sky let's go by story you were just talking to go ahead go ahead go ahead talk about it i feel bad all right so what but i remember being there one time and it when you entered the headquarters there was a bar do you remember the bar that was there right in front of you All right. HQ had a bar in the lobby and the employees were looking were like we're always drinking their day drinking there in this bar and I literally looked at and I think it was to shame I said it or we're one of them I go oh look and HR violation waiting to happen and they had a lot of HR violation problems there a lot of lot of stuff. And they spent enormous amounts of money. I remember Josh Tarantle was doing that show, the Vice News show. And they had like a hundred, resilient editing booths that looked like the top. And they just the money that he spent, like, especially Rupert Murdoch's money, was insane. And I was running my little media company. I was like, howdy? Before this, because I can't, like, you know, anyway. But I was responsible. Go ahead, tell your story of your show.
SPEAKER_03
23:07 - 25:04
They decided they wanted to get into thought leadership and they launched a show with me and a non-girded us and it was COVID. I had a full studio, a non-Head of Show, I had a show and basically they said do whatever you want and then they cut it up and edited it and sort of like to peel the youth, fast-cuts, tons of colors everywhere. It was some literally my garage by my tech head of technology, Drew Burrows, and my partner who runs property media, Catherine Dillon, everyone in masks or remotely. Usually there wasn't even anyone in the studio at me. And I screamed at my house with some friends. And we watched 21 minutes of it, and then I looked over. And my wife was crying. And I'm like, that's not a good sign. And she's like, what's this going to mean for us? Like, this is so bad. Wow, this is your wife. I love you. And I remember my youngest son looking at her like, oh my god, this is really bad. I mean, and all I could think of was like, oh fuck, I had signed up for six shows and I had five more. And all I could think of was, how do I get through this and then accident? And then after three weeks, the person who ran by his television comments that I have great news. They love to show. It's doing really well. And we want to sign you up for another 12 shows. And I'm like, there's no fucking way I'm doing another show. I'm going to see it through the six. I'm out. And they called me back, and this is, this is, I thought, provided some insight into television. They must have called me back six times, and they were genuinely flomixed. that I would leave TV. It is so clear that when people get on TV, they literally cling to it like an African dictator clings to power. Nobody ever wants to leave television once or on. I'm out. I hate the show. I look like an old man having an epileptic seizure. This is just not the vibe I want in media. Anyway, that's my by story.
SPEAKER_06
25:05 - 26:56
Anyway, they did do some great journalism too. At the same time, some of the reports were quite good. In any case, Shane, welcome back as usual. No one gets to go down in the Internet economies. Anyway, let's get to our first big story. Federal regulators have reached a deal to move forward with anti-trust investigations into the AI industry. You knew this was coming. The Justice Department is going to investigate in video. While the FDC will look at open AI and Microsoft, they've split it up as usual, Lena Khan and John Cantor. John Cantor, the assistant agent for Andy Trust, told the financial times that he was looking into the AI sector with urgency and specifically monopoly choke points. He's good that he's getting here early, took the decades to get to Google. So it's probably smart that they put everybody on notice. It's interesting about Nvidia and other companies to be in trouble. I'm not sure they'll be in trouble, but it's good that the government is looking at all these different weird deals, including that one where Microsoft essentially bought a company and pretended they didn't. In video currently has an estimated 80% of the market in AI chips. That won't last. There's sort of in the Cisco position that Cisco used to be on in the early internet. Microsoft reported structured its minority stake in open and part to avoid anti trust scrutiny that been very good on deals like this. In spite of the Santa trust news, it's been another big week for Nvidia. The company hit the $3 trillion mark on Wednesday passing affluent on the world's second most valuable company, Microsoft still is a top slot. And Nvidia's 10 for one stocks, but goes into effect the close trading on Friday, which will probably take it even higher, a move likely to attract more investors and the price goes up. Hey, you're also a picture of Jensen Wong signing someone's breast, which was sort of like he wears his leather jacket, so it looked very rock story. Um, a couple of things. First about the anti-trust thing, and then we'll talk about the, and in video bubble, which hasn't burst at all. Um, talk about the anti-trust stuff first.
SPEAKER_03
26:56 - 29:23
The two biggest tax cuts that would lower prices for corporations and consumers globally would be, first and foremost, if China and the US kissed and made up. Their supply chain, their RIP consumer culture, their problems around youth unemployment, our problems around inflation. I mean, it's just a marriage made in heaven. We need to kiss and make up the She and Biden need to realize that the two largest economies when they come together creates peace and prosperity. So I hope that happens. The second biggest tax cut and it might be the biggest is if we triple the budget of the DOJ and the FTC and we fertilize the entire corporate world with a bunch of amazing companies. and how we would do that as the following is we look at home renovations, agriculture, chicken, beef, media, there are so many industries where three companies control between 50 and 80% of the industry. Everybody thinks the free market results in prosperity? No. The free market results in a series of companies that perform really well about standing leadership, get cheap capital, use that capital to create regulatory capture, and then get to a scale where they run away with it and small and medium sized companies end up dying a slow death. The fertilizer here would be to go in and take the 50 biggest companies dominating their industry and turn them into 300 great companies. Employers or employees would be able to charge higher rents for their labor. There'd be more tax revenue. This would be the biggest tax cut in history. And it needs to start or one of the places it should start is in big tech. And there has never been as far as I can tell a breakup where we look back and thought that was a bad idea. Now, as it relates, let me play the other side here, as it relates to Nvidia, I don't think Nvidia is where you start because what you want to be careful of is saying that because someone is so successful and so big, that's not a catalyst for breaking up a company. I mean, I would argue my old company, the company, the bottom line, gardener. I think antitrust officials should look at that company because it is hard for anyone to emerge and syndicated research because gardener shows up and acquires little companies, including mine, and such that no one has any choice. And when you have its corporations, I'll hate this company, but they all use it, and they have what I would call kind of unfair pricing. So being big and being worth $3 trillion doesn't necessarily mean you should be broken up.
SPEAKER_06
29:23 - 29:59
Sure. Sure. That's the argument. That's the argument. But the point being, they need, besides the financial elements that you talked about quite a bit here, I think it's that they need to be seen on the job, the cops on the job, and looking even if in video maybe not the first one, it's the obvious company to at least mention. that we're looking at you in video. We're watching you and we're looking for competition. We're looking for you not to try to goose prices and restrict the ability of people to get these chips and things like that. So that's important. The real company here to look at is Microsoft and everything it's doing.
SPEAKER_03
29:59 - 30:01
or alphabet or matter.
SPEAKER_06
30:01 - 30:27
Yeah, right, absolutely. But I'm saying these minority stakes that they're doing and is including buying inflection AI, you know, that was a purchase of a company versus a, you know, taking the, taking the guy who ran it, a Mustafa Soleim on. I just, I think it's very good that canter and very canny that he is looking at them, whether he can do anything about it is another story, but they never have and they're doing it early. So that to me is a good time.
SPEAKER_03
30:27 - 31:16
So to your point, It's typically not the action itself. It creates better behavior, but scrutiny. Microsoft, the decision to break up Microsoft, which was overturned in an appeal court, was not what had an impact on the ecosystem. It was that Microsoft said, OK, we're going to stop bundling Internet Explorer. And as a result, or we're going to stop forcing Bing on people and Google emerged. My joke is without Without the DOJ or the FTC, we'd all be saying, I don't know, being it, right? So any trust, any trust action works, you know, it, again, it's the scrutiny. It works really well. And they have framed it incorrectly. Right now, the Republicans and the incumbents will frame it as you're holding back winners, being bad and being rich isn't bad.
SPEAKER_06
31:16 - 31:42
I'm going to push back on that, you know, I in this interview with AOC and she said it's really interesting because I have found common ground with a lot of Republicans. All of a sudden, they all hate the public. Yeah. They're with, there's all these groups that lovely Nikon that are very right wing. You know what I mean? Well, Josh Holley wants to be called conneasters or they have a name for their confans, or Lena Con fans. And I asked AOC about that.
SPEAKER_05
31:42 - 31:43
She's also in a con.
SPEAKER_06
31:43 - 31:50
Yes, she's also, she hangs out with that gates on these issues. And so I said, this is interesting. You're doing a lot of these, some of these.
SPEAKER_03
31:50 - 31:52
He's a little old for her, but anyway.
SPEAKER_06
31:52 - 32:17
Yeah, he was, let me talk about a series like it. And she said, Kara, it's really interesting that I find common ground and it there is a real common ground. She said for different reasons, but we are together on breaking up big tech. She was like, we are absolutely lockstep and fans of cons, fans of this. So I'm not so sure. The old Republicans, which are like, don't restrict these innovative geniuses.
SPEAKER_03
32:17 - 32:19
That is not who's in power in the book.
SPEAKER_06
32:20 - 33:45
You know, anyway, let's move very quickly to the number. This shares across the trillion dollar mark last summer, it moved to $2 trillion this past February. Shares have risen 20% since the first quarter earnings reported in May, 24% with the stock surging 147% so far this year. Apple, of course, is now three. I don't know if Apple should be concerned about this. I do think this is the Cisco situation, which happened. Do I remember Cisco was the top of the top, and then it wasn't? But because it was making routers and things like that for the internet, they were selling the picks and shovels of the internet at that time. The stock split is good for investors. It always is. All these stocks, but it's always are. Google did it many years ago, as I recall, it's surged. So is this this this number you talked about it a come maybe right when the earnings were around and you said I wouldn't that against this because it's because this is what this is where investors are going to put their money. What do you do now I ran it to someone who has been worked for in video and she was like we don't know what to do all of a sudden we're really rich and at the same time. selling it is then they were there for like six years or however many years and and and they don't know what to do they don't know like they're thrilled but at the same time nervous is all fuck about where this is going
SPEAKER_03
33:46 - 35:51
So can I advise your friends first and then talk about a video? Yeah. When you wake up and you find yourself blessed with a large concentrated position because you're working in a video and all of a sudden you have three, five, ten, twenty million dollars worth of stock. There will be a lot of soft pressure to stay in the company and show that you're in it to win it. Apps are fucking loosely exercise those options sell as much as you can and start diversifying. Once you get Sometimes you have to be concentrated in the beginning and go all in on buying a house or starting a business but the moment you have the moment more than 80% of your network is in any one thing you need to start diversifying your friends don't want to get rich they already rich they don't want to get poor so they need to start diversifying and they may think in videos amazing just as people thought Cisco is amazing and let me draw the distinction because I've made the comparison and people including Josh Brown who I really respect called me or texted me and said you got one thing wrong. As Nvidia stock has gone up, exploded. Unlike Cisco, it's actual PE ratio has gone down because they're earnings have exploded even faster than the stock price. So there's a fair distinction. However, at $3 trillion. The moment the moment a company, the moment meta or more likely Microsoft announces a new AI GPU that's fairly good. The moment a big company says we're cutting back by 60 or 80% are spend on AI. all of these companies get recalibrated because the it has become insane town but you want to talk about in video in video is the most successful company in history as measured by value creation in such a short amount of time in may It added $750 billion in market cap. So in video added the value of any company in the world except for maybe the top seven or eight more valuable in one month. And here's the problem with the S&P and these indices. The S&P 500 is up. I think 13 or 14% year to date. You think, oh, the market's doing well.
SPEAKER_02
35:51 - 35:52
That's right.
SPEAKER_03
35:54 - 37:08
Oh, young people should be happy. Well, guess what? Unless you were smart enough to figure out don't Nvidia, your returns have barely paced with inflation. So what we have is income inequality squared. And that is a small amount of companies, even the tech companies that it can't say were AI are losing market cap to Nvidia. But this thing, it is absolutely Mind blowing what this company has been able to pull off and what this company represents from a larger business strategy standpoint and what is so unique about this company is that the only way you can add get to a trillion dollars market cap now is to be an asset light and IP heavy company. Supposedly the thing that was always going to be the mode for AMD and Intel was this 10, 15, 20 billion dollar capex they had to make in these chip factories. And then Nvidia comes along and says, no, no, no, no. The secret sauce is in the IP. It's in the design and we will contract out the slack supply. of infrastructure and ship, ship plants, which we did just been unheard and now they're worth more than the entire industry. This is the go-to move, this is the change in the economy, asset-like companies that are totally focused on IP versus hard assets.
SPEAKER_06
37:09 - 38:29
So let me point out today right now in video at the beginning of here started $481 a share almost $482. Now it's 1,220 through triple. It's just an astonishing situation in its max, which is crazy. It bumped along the bottom for ever until there was a little bump in 2022. It was a gaming. It was a gaming show. And I, again, I interviewed Jensen. I did not let him sign my boot, but he was an exciting, I would say. You know what I mean? It was an unexciting company, although very, he's very competent in everything else. but it was it's an astonishing if you go look at the charts it's crazy and it just this is what I told these people same thing I was like look I know you're gonna leave stuff on the table here because people are crazy and they are they only alternate and they're doing very well but boy boy boy boy is that make me nervous right now the PE ratio is 104 It was 75 yesterday, certainly rising as people buy this. And as they split it up, it will be even more as it will. It just will. That's what happens when it happens. And this is what regular people think of as the internet. Let's get into Nvidia. So it's just it could be real bad for some people. That's all. It could be real good for some people.
SPEAKER_03
38:29 - 38:51
I love this game. In just the last five months, Nvidia has added the market cap of Amazon, or the GDP of Australia, or in the last five months, Nvidia has added the market cap of JPMorgan, Walmart, and Tesla combined. Combined. In an unrelated story, Um, I was out of fundraiser with Emily Roda-Cowski last night, two nights ago.
SPEAKER_00
38:51 - 38:52
I didn't say hi to her.
SPEAKER_03
38:52 - 39:00
She was intimidated. So intimidated. You know who did come up and say hi? There was Natalie Portland. She is beautiful and she still looks 25.
SPEAKER_06
39:00 - 39:02
Why did she say hi to you?
SPEAKER_03
39:02 - 39:09
She was a small thing and she just came up and, you know, was Emily really there? I wouldn't lie about something like that. Yeah, she was there.
SPEAKER_06
39:09 - 39:11
I didn't say hello to her after all of this.
SPEAKER_03
39:11 - 39:31
You know what I was thinking about? When I was a younger man, I wouldn't have gone up and said hi. I, that's what I thought. I thought I'll go up and say hi. I'm sky-caught. I care as fishers co-host on pivot. But what I was thinking about, and I hate this about myself, I've gotten so used to people coming up to me. I no longer have the mojo, and I'm too arrogant to go up to other people. And I got to stop that.
SPEAKER_06
39:31 - 39:34
I got to get my mojo back here. I do it all the time.
SPEAKER_03
39:34 - 39:35
I wait for people to come up to me.
SPEAKER_06
39:36 - 39:42
Now, all right. Okay. Well, she didn't. So anyway, we'll move on. We'll see in video people. Good luck.
SPEAKER_03
39:42 - 39:46
And in related news, do you think AOC would sign my boob? That's good.
SPEAKER_06
39:46 - 39:56
No. No. That's good. Oh, she's good. She would eat you for lunch. Let me just say it's a great interview for a new strong woman.
SPEAKER_03
39:56 - 39:57
Also happens news.
SPEAKER_06
39:57 - 40:14
She is in sharp as a friggin. She is. She thinks so quickly I have never interviewed someone that was I found hard to keep up with anyway Let's go on a quick break when we come back We'll talk about an open letter from Open AI employees and take a listen or mail question about a recent ruling on grants
SPEAKER_03
40:18 - 41:13
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SPEAKER_06
41:21 - 42:34
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SPEAKER_03
42:38 - 42:40
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SPEAKER_02
42:40 - 43:28
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SPEAKER_06
43:41 - 46:37
Scott, we're back with our second big story. Again, more drama at OpenAI, as safety people fight non-safety people, I guess. It was actually a topic we talked about last night and a lot of these women were like, everybody's a little bit much on the dreamy part and a little bit much on the dramatic dystopian part. So I trust these women what they were saying. A group of OpenAI incitors is demanding AI companies increase transparency and whistleblower protections. I put a group at that. an open letter group of current and former employees expressed concern that the company hasn't done enough to prevent AI from becoming dangerous. The letter says that AI companies overall, including open AI, have strong financial incentives to avoid effective oversight, you think. Over AI has recently made news for agreements departing employees are asked to sign, which threaten to revoke stock option grants for non cooperatives. Of course, they've said they are going to take those off. In a statement, open AI said the company has an integrity hotline and a safety and security committee, which is of course Sam Altman's on it, you know, kind of thing. It's a board committee. I don't know. These open letters. I think this is their moment, the safety people, and they all got laid off essentially and pushed to the side in this run for the money kind of thing. Not just money, but power and money. I am not sure lawmakers will get involved. The letter voice concern that regular whistleblower protections aren't enough because they focus on legal activity and the industry is not yet regulated. Although whistleblower has worked for Francis how good and others. It should the company be worried about all this bad news open-air, but it was targeting all the AI companies, but it's certainly open-air. If the center of this, the way in video is at the center of the chip, AI chips. But at the same time, Apple's expected to announce a partnership with open-air to integrate chatGP2. It keeps going open-air with its news. Agreements, but this is an agreement with Apple to integrate chat GPT into the iPhone operating system. Next week's worldwide developers conference, the companies have reportedly discussed using chat GPT to power Siri, which would be great. Anybody can power Siri, I could power Siri better than Siri does. Or as a standalone app, Apple's reportedly still talks with Google about using Gemini on phones. but is yet to reach a deal. Apple's a customer of all these companies. Talk a little bit about the first part. I mean, the drama piles on with this safety group because I'm going to just before you to comment, this is a company started as one thing and it's become another and you're going to have disappointed people who thought it was one. They thought it was It reminds me of Google a little bit. There are a lot of people who started Google were very innocent and thought it was to help the world and it wasn't. It just wasn't. And so you're going to get this kind of disagreement. And the people who believe that AI is going to kill us are very intense and very believe very much this is a dangerous situation. And those who are on the dreamy sides gonna cut your cancer or everything else are like, what are you talking about? And then right in the middle is the money and that's where I look at. That's what I look at.
SPEAKER_03
46:38 - 48:07
So first of, I think from this point forward, we should call it Microsoft AI. Let's just call it what it is. It's not OpenAI, it's Microsoft AI. And as it relates to this notion that OpenAI employees warned of open quote, reckless race for dominance, that's the type of people I invest in when I'm trying to make money. And I find it just sort of cute and stupid and ineffective for former employees after they've been paid or got their severance to now say they're worried and granted some current employees are saying this. But enough already. This is a Microsoft division. And it should come under FTC and DOJ scrutiny. And two, that safety team in those individuals need to figure out a way to get to Washington. And if they really are serious about non-profit and saving the world from AI, go to work for a regulatory firm or Senator Schumer's office or something. But all of this is a fucking soap opera and a misdirect. And that is DC needs to get their arms around the technology. Break up companies that become too powerful, like a Microsoft, like an alphabet, like an apple, like a meta. And we need people in Washington who have the power of the courts, the power of finding the power of regulation to regulate these companies. Instead of listening to people who invented Frankenstein and then get worried that Frankenstein's going to start throwing your friends' kids into the river. That's not helpful.
SPEAKER_06
48:07 - 49:37
That's what I say. I said, go work, go work for government. Go, I've said it to several people who are worried. I was like, well, I have an idea. Like, go, go work for government. Because one of the things is interesting, they do see me as like a fellow traveler. Like, I'm more, I'm very worried about their power. Let me just say I couldn't be, I'm someone who's, who's always saying these companies have too much power. We'll do something about it, not just by these open letters. Go work for government. and help regulate these companies, help create laws that are smart, your technical people. You can talk up, tell us about the problems. The same time being overly dramatic when there are obvious benefits, be honest about what's going on here, right? It's not just they're making the money. When you talk to them, It's literally, again, last night with these women, they were exactly laid it out. Like, here's the problems. Here's the benefits. Let's figure out how to have guardrails. They were so sensible because they were just older women who've been through it all. And they were being so reasonable about how to deal with it. There is a ground here where we can have the government involved. and these companies throttle back from what they're doing. But if you think they're not going to be in the money game here, I don't know where you grew up. You know what I mean? It's not America, I guess, because everything is about the money and dominance in corporate America. And I agree with you. There's going to be dangers. It is the third place to problem.
SPEAKER_03
49:37 - 50:52
So I sit in, I sit in pictures from companies to VCs or small business competitions all the time. And if a CEO stood up and said, hi, we're showing so, and we're in a reckless race for dominance. I'd like that. They say it is if it's a bad thing. That's what for profit companies like this one are supposed to do. It's the whole move, you know, move fast and break things. You know, things have just, the people in this company were under the illusion that they were there to be a thing tank and think about controlling AI and being thoughtful about it. And then someone smelled hundreds of billions and said, just kidding. And we did call this the most ridiculous structure. If you read it, I printed it out. It was like we're a nonprofit, but the nonprofit only gets money after we've delivered a hundred billion in profits to our initial investors. And I'm like, let me get this. You have to make more profits than any firm in history, maybe with the exception of Saudi or Ramco before you're actually a quote unquote nonprofit. It was just such jazz hands gone crazy. And these people, like you said, it sucks to be a grown-up. My guess is they cash their checks. They got severance and exchange for signing those non disparagement agreements. It sucks to be a grown-up. Go to work for government. Help us out.
SPEAKER_06
50:52 - 51:50
Yeah, I would agree. Get in here. We're happy to. I really would like really smart people doing this because it's not to limit these companies because you and I are both capitalists. It's to make them better. Honestly, I would put all these women on the board of opening. Because I think they'd be great. I guess that's what the nation put, all these amazing technologies who are there for the early days. There was one that was so fucking funny about her early days of doing stuff. And one of the women, it's 90 years old, she was doing machine learning back in the 50s, incredible woman. And just really, those are the kind of people I give sitting out like, these are the kind of people we want to talk about these issues. And I don't think they're around for brethren. Anyway, let's pivot to a listener question. This question comes from Tamara.
SPEAKER_00
51:50 - 52:21
Let's listen. I Karen Scott, this is Tamara from Brooklyn, New York. And I wanted to get your thoughts on the recent federal appeals court ruling that blocks fearless land from issuing grant to black women. It just seems really ridiculous to me, honestly, that this group that is serving such an underfunded population would get blowback. when billions of dollars continues to flow to white men and oftentimes from other white men. So, put that to hear your take on this. Love the show. Thanks.
SPEAKER_06
52:21 - 53:29
To Mara, what a great question. I have been thinking about this happen. This fearless fund is giving, it's a venture fund giving grants to black women who are completely underserved in the money that goes into investments. And the guy who did the affirmative action lawsuit that one on the Supreme Court is going after a lot of companies. And this is one of them, of course, that it's unfair that these women of color get more advantage over white men that desperately need this money is venture money. When I think 90, bazillion percent of the money goes to white men in venture. It is a really thorny political issue. It's a thorny legal issue. because of the way the laws are structured and the way the Supreme Court ruled on affirmative action. This guy is going around stripping any kind of ability to focus in on any group that's underserved or has been under invested in by saying they've got to compete with the white guys because it's fair. Scott, I don't know what you think about this, but this is where it's going with those affirmative action rulings at the Supreme Court.
SPEAKER_03
53:30 - 56:05
I think he's right. I mean, I'm torn here because the statistics are just overwhelming. When I was raising money in the 90s, it was only white dudes raising money. And I never stopped even think, well, why is it only white guys who look like me and went to elite colleges are raising money from venture capital? That's a problem. the stat you a third of a third of one percent of total venture capital going to black women okay that's that's a problem the issue is how do we come together to solve it and I was fascinated by this because I believe capital is free speech there's an issue here how do you advance the rights of people or advanced communities that have not entered a very lucrative sector I I totally get it my first reaction was a gag reflex And then I went, I looked at two of the most recent companies that the Fearless Fund gave grants to. One is called Slutty Vegan, Versauch Griname. And the other is Live Tinted. And I looked at the founders. And one of the founders was raised by immigrants and her father spent time in prison. And this is where I'm heading with this. I think any affirmative action and I think this is a formative affirmative action that is based on visible characteristics is a bad idea. Now having said that before my inbox gets filled up, I do think it is entirely appropriate and we should promote with the University of California did in 1997 and that is not have race based affirmative action and this is a formative affirmative action but have an adversity index. Now, the founder of Sletty Vegan and I want you to use their names because I want people contacting them. I think she faced tremendous adversity and I like the idea of pools of capital being allocated unfairly, fairly of bias towards people who have faced headwinds. I'd like to think that the majority of Republicans feel that way and I know all Democrats feel that way. The other person, the other woman who founded Live Tinted, was raised by, in Houston, she went to the University of Texas Austin, her parents are married. I don't want to say she hasn't faced issues, but actually black women, a greater percentage of black women, now attend college than white men. And what I would say is if we want to come together and figure out a way to move forward, that doesn't create these problems, I think we need to move to an adversity-based score or recognizing people's background because I think this creates a lot of hostility and resentment.
SPEAKER_06
56:05 - 56:27
Maybe because it's got, okay, hostility. Let me just say, what about women who don't necessarily come from adversity? If you have ever tried to raise money as a woman, it is only white men or smart. It really is an astonishing It's a discrimination. I don't know what to call it, but it's just like, how can it be same thing with boards? How can it be that only white men are good at boards?
SPEAKER_03
56:27 - 56:30
How can that are that change dramatically?
SPEAKER_06
56:30 - 58:38
I agree with you, but for a long time and when you look at the numbers, something really is happening that is just really out of whack with talent across the country. They will not look at women. They will definitely not look at women of color. You know, in AI right now, and actually this was discussed on the stage, someone asked a question where are the people of color in AI? the women are like, they weren't there and they aren't there and what is happening here is is men funding each other again again and again and again and so white men funding each other and so what do you do about this creepy people have a strangle hold on the venture money and refuse to look up and not invest in people that look like them that they are they Think it's a meritocracy as I've said dozens of times and it's a it's a mirror talk or see and that they're doing it themselves so what I agree this is this is going to probably lose because this guy has has a point of view about affirmative action that many I you can absolutely see this argument the problem is. It doesn't address what is a massive issue is these groups will always fail because they're not getting the chance to have to show what they can do. And then when they fail because they don't get enough funding or backing, see, we told you, now let's give more money to the guy who looks like Mark Zuckerberg and then let's support him and cuddle him and lift him up and put him on third base and then clap when he gets to home. You know, I just, It's such a fixed game for white men here, as much as many of them are very talented, by the way. But they are so coddled and so supported, and they think it's because they're so smart, and it's just simply not the case. So I don't know what to do here, because you're never going to get these people the kind of support and funding they need. And I don't know how to do it. adversity can't be the only thing is what about people who are went to college and they're from middle class and they did have some support but they just can't get the kind of funding and support they need.
SPEAKER_03
58:38 - 01:00:41
Just listening to you now you're you are changing my view and I want to I want to draw distinction and I want to use two different environments let's talk about college which has traditionally been the certification and the experience that is the widest on ramp into the middle and the upper class right. And in 1960 there were 12 black people at Princeton Harvard or Neil Combine. That was a problem. The academic achievement gap between blacks and whites was double what it was between rich and poor. It made sense to have affirmative action based on race. It made sense. I believe it no longer does. 51% of Harvard's freshman classes, non-white. What I think your argument is, we're not there yet in venture capital. We're not at the point. The numbers are still so skewed in favor of the patriarchy that we still do need race based affirmative action. So I think my go-to was around what I know best, which is higher ed, but I think the point you're making is that we're still not there yet, and we need race based affirmative action. The way you would probably get there, I think, is the only way to jump start this stuff is with when a black woman led business goes public and creates billions of dollars of shareholder value in people get over it. Now, until then, I think what you could do is have state or federal sponsored legislation that provides what I'll call credits for investing in. I mean, here's the problem though. When I was in Morgan Stanley, the syndicates would be picked for an IPO and there'd be minority. They demand the state of California would demand minority and women owned business investment banks in the syndicate. So we pick one or two, they did nothing. And the people around the firm went to Harvard and they happened to be, you know, women or people of color and was like, okay, all we're doing is reshuffling the elites here. This money isn't getting to, I want to acknowledge your point. I have this reflex, gag reflex or this reflex memory around what's happened in education. And I think your point is we still have a long way to go before we can get
SPEAKER_06
01:00:42 - 01:01:10
I don't even know if this is the answer. Scott, I don't honestly know. I just know that these white guys get to fail all the fucking time. And the women do not get to fail. There's no failure for them. And these men come up with like, look, Shane Smith, look, he's back. Give me a fucking break. He lost some money for everyone, but himself. But he gets to come back. Like, are you kidding me? Like, that's what it, that's what it looks like. If you are a black woman and you feel at a company, that's the end of your entire process. That's it.
SPEAKER_03
01:01:10 - 01:01:12
That's all you get for. And I think that's what it is.
SPEAKER_06
01:01:12 - 01:01:31
But you know, Shane Smith, oh, he's so good at what he does. Love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love love
SPEAKER_03
01:01:32 - 01:01:36
I want to acknowledge your point and agree with you that I don't know the answer.
SPEAKER_06
01:01:36 - 01:01:58
We don't know the answer to Mara, so sorry. I think this is going to, I think this group is going to lose, I think they are. I think this guy is here. What about Melinda Gates do it focusing all this money on women businesses? Do you think they'll go after her? But she can do what she wants, right? Or can't she? Right? It's an interesting thing.
SPEAKER_03
01:01:58 - 01:03:13
Interesting question. But what she also did, she also give $20 million to the American Institute for Boys and Men. Yeah. And it strikes me it's going to be difficult to tell people what they can do or not do with Phil Anthrop. I don't know. Some of it's things that would happen. And it's a really fair point, but I think she, I think she inoculates herself by saying it's not a condition that she's going to focus on a community, but it's not a condition of her philanthropy. Because maybe it's how you talk about it. It's the language, I don't know, but I mean, the argument here, the logic is really sound that he's making. And that is, we need to move to a post-racial society. And at some point, we need to acknowledge that when you're advancing, I mean, here's where we are with universities. And this is why I think D.I. should be disassembled in universities. People of color have been disassembled. Scott, go. I know. And I think it should. And by the way, it's a huge apparatus with a lot of overpaid people that in my opinion hold on to their jobs and have absolutely no accountability to anybody. Anyways, and are protected because you're called names if you have a question there departments.
SPEAKER_06
01:03:14 - 01:03:17
because there's no old white men doing that, but go ahead, keep going.
SPEAKER_03
01:03:17 - 01:03:27
How big is the Harvard? How much money do you think Harvard's money is on? I can't do that, but I can't do that. What if they expanded their freshman seeds to let in more blackheads? Wouldn't that be more beyond?
SPEAKER_06
01:03:27 - 01:03:32
There's so many shitty old white man professors that where I went to school, but go ahead and go ahead and go ahead.
SPEAKER_03
01:03:32 - 01:03:58
Okay, but that was back in the middle ages. So. All right, sure. Anyways, what you're saying, and I agree with you, is we don't have that issue yet in venture capital. I do think we have that issue on campus. I think I did that podcast with those two very impressive women from Harvard, and they were talking about how wonderful the DIY department is. I'm like, take all of that money, expand your freshman class, and let in more trans kids. Let in more black kids. That's DEI, not reshuffling the elites.
SPEAKER_06
01:03:58 - 01:04:18
Well, that's a good point. We have to get out of this. A very interesting question. Thank you so much. It'll be interesting to see where this goes. But we both probably think, uh, middle loose. Um, if you've got a question of your own, you'd like answered send it our way, go to nmymag.com slash pivot to submit a question for the show or call eight five five five five one pivot. All right. It's got one more quick break. We'll be back for predictions. You better have a good one.
SPEAKER_03
01:04:23 - 01:05:20
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SPEAKER_01
01:05:23 - 01:05:35
Remember just a few days ago when, for the first time ever, a United States president got convicted of a felony of 34 felonies. The first thing he said was, of course, the whole trial was rigged.
SPEAKER_04
01:05:35 - 01:05:37
I'm a very innocent man.
SPEAKER_01
01:05:37 - 01:05:45
But the second thing he said was, he was weirdly talking all of a sudden about immigration.
SPEAKER_04
01:05:45 - 01:05:53
Minutes and millions of people pouring into our country right now. from prisons and from mental institutions, terrorists.
SPEAKER_01
01:05:53 - 01:05:59
The next day he spoke about his guilty verdicts again. This time immigration was the first thing he wanted to talk about.
SPEAKER_04
01:05:59 - 01:06:10
When you look at our country, what's happening where millions and millions of people are flowing in from all parts of the world, not yourself, America. from Africa, from Asia, from the Middle East.
SPEAKER_01
01:06:10 - 01:06:28
It's an election year and the leading Republican candidate, maybe the leading candidate period wants to make it all about immigration. So we're going to do the same on today explained with two episodes this week. Come over and join us. Give them a listen.
SPEAKER_06
01:06:28 - 01:06:31
Okay Scott, let's hear your fantastic prediction.
SPEAKER_03
01:06:32 - 01:07:47
a lot of pressure, I'm gonna like this. Okay, so my prediction in one word is Chicago exclamation point. The Democratic Convention in Chicago, I think it's gonna make a lot of news. I think one of several things might happen. One, I think the GRU and the CCP both want to so incredible division in our society and have the ultimate propaganda tool, at least the CCP does with TikTok. I think Russia has become exceptionally good, especially the GRU at weaponizing troll farms in an amoral porous social media environment. I think there's going to be all kinds of misinformation and noise around the Chicago Convention. In addition, some of the protests we've seen, some of them have legitimate concerns, some of it is being funded in my opinion by outside entities. In addition, if President Biden, Biden, let me just say the quiet part out loud, gets a cold and for whatever reason can't be on stage one night, there's going to be all sorts of speculation. I just think we are setting ourselves up in Chicago in terms of scenario planning, scenario planning as you look at what a reasonable number of outcomes and what what prediction or what scenario likely fits across all of them. My prediction is the following. The Chicago Democratic Convention makes a lot of news.
SPEAKER_06
01:07:47 - 01:07:55
Hmm, okay. I'm going to take the opposite side. I think it's going to be one of these things we're going to like, but oh, no, oh, no, no, and then nothing's going to happen.
SPEAKER_03
01:07:55 - 01:07:56
That might.
SPEAKER_06
01:07:56 - 01:08:35
That's where I feel like it because they're, oh, they're, oh, knowing it quite a bit. Everyone's worried. Um, you know, I think it's going to be one of these things we're going to be like. It's sort of like the debate. Everyone's going to be like, hold on to your seat. Like, right? You're waiting for one of them to do something crazy on that debate stage. I don't think anyone feels comfortable because who knows what Trump's going to do, right? Can he be disciplined? Probably not. He'll probably say something nutty. Like, I'm at a jail. You would go Biden and Joe Biden's like, going to go, come on, man. Like, that's probably where it's going. So then nobody knows where this debate's going. So everyone's going to be. That's not the fear. I may not watch it. because I don't know which one is going to have a problem.
SPEAKER_03
01:08:35 - 01:08:49
That's not that's not the fear of Trump does something really stupid or rational. No, no, no, he cares. Heard him as much as the fear Cara is his Biden has a McConnell moment. And that's the fear.
SPEAKER_06
01:08:49 - 01:09:22
But if he doesn't and Trump doesn't, they'll be like, yeah, well, whatever, the bars so low right now for Biden. So in that way Trump, you're seeing Trump like unfettered is going to be people, you know, or going to be like, oh, God, look at that guy. Like time. So we'll see. We'll see how that goes. But nonetheless, I think I'm going to take the opposite. I think nothing's going to happen at this thing. I think they will have the security. I think there'll be rings of security around the entire thing. And then the governor will who is a Democrat will keep it. Keep it tight. He's like, he's a keep it tight on a governor.
SPEAKER_03
01:09:22 - 01:09:28
There's a two or three percent chance. He comes out of the convention as the nominee. That's a good potentially go down here. So look,
SPEAKER_06
01:09:29 - 01:09:33
But what you're talking about.
SPEAKER_03
01:09:33 - 01:10:52
What you're talking about is a distinct phenomenon and that is anxiety. A lot of us, but the first 40 years of my life, I didn't have enough anxiety. I was literally sleepwalking through life. I almost got kicked out of UCLA three times, didn't care, almost got fired for more than Stanley, didn't care. I just didn't, you know, took to the took to sunset Boulevard fucked up in high school didn't care and then from 40 to 50 I had the perfect amount of anxiety and now from 50 on I fucking worry about everything and anxiety anxiety is a survival mechanism because you are supposed to be worried that when you see the reads flowing in the wind it's not the wind it's a line that could eat you behind because occasionally it is a line and that we go through a watering hole you are supposed to be anxious because it might be one of those TikTok crocodiles about to jump out But here's the thing, anxiety is a form of survival because the shit you are most worried about. If you're worried about every computer and every elevator and every air traffic control system shutting down at midnight on January 1st, 2000, you start to prepare for it. And by preparing for it and being anxious about it, you reduce a likelihood it's going to happen. And this is a lesson. The things you're most anxious about are the things that are least likely to hurt or kill you. It's the shit you're not expecting.
SPEAKER_06
01:10:52 - 01:10:57
I am exactly opposite to you. I used to be a lot more anxious, and now I'm like, yeah, whatever.
SPEAKER_03
01:10:57 - 01:10:57
You care.
SPEAKER_06
01:10:57 - 01:10:58
I literally have shifted.
SPEAKER_03
01:10:58 - 01:11:00
I mean, so much for whatever.
SPEAKER_06
01:11:00 - 01:11:21
And actually, you know, I had someone who I would say is on their way to not being my friend anymore. And they're always like, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, but I'm all the political stuff. And I used to rise to the occasion. And now I'm like, yeah, okay. Like I don't even listen. I don't even respond. It's just literally I've become the opposite of you. I'm like, all right.
SPEAKER_03
01:11:22 - 01:11:24
You're so worried about everything. I think it's kids. I'm not.
SPEAKER_06
01:11:24 - 01:12:08
I'm not worried about everything except my kids. Like my safety, my kids. That's it. Anyway, we're very different. I was much more anxious earlier. And Scott, that's the show. Just a reminder, I'll be at the Trebekah Film Festival next week, June 11th at 5 p.m. taping a slate podcast at the Sex and Money, which was Scott's main focuses in his life with Anna Sale. You can get tickets at Trebekahfilm.com slash death sex and money. And also listen to my AOC interview. It is quite a thing. She said quite a lot of things in it, among which she thinks Donald Trump will probably try to have arrested. She talked a lot about progressives and the need to calm the fuck down, essentially. She talked a lot about that, that whole fight with Marjorie Taylor Green. In any case, she's a very talented politician.
SPEAKER_03
01:12:08 - 01:12:09
Very talented.
SPEAKER_06
01:12:09 - 01:12:17
Really, really, really great interview. Anyway, we'll be back on Tuesday with more pivot. Scott, Rita Sappt.
SPEAKER_03
01:12:17 - 01:12:41
Today's show was produced by Lara name and silly Marcus and Taylor Griffin. or an intertide engineer in this episode. Thanks also to Gibro's Miss of Aerial. The Shark Hero has Fox Media's Executive Producer of Audio. Make sure you subscribe to the show wherever you listen podcasts. Thanks for listening to Pivot from New York Magazine of Fox Media. You can subscribe to the magazine at edelinemag.com slash pod. We'll be back next week for another breakdown of all things. Pivot.