Transcript for Special Episode: Dr. Paul Offit & Tell Me When It’s Over
SPEAKER_02
00:01 - 01:12
This is exactly right. Picture this, you're a young woman living in 1920s London. You've embraced your post-war independence and started dabbling in activities that were previously reserved for men, like driving. You're also rocking a chic chin-length bob and a, of course, flapper dress. But this isn't just a hypothetical, you can take on this persona when you play June's journey. June's journey is a mobile mystery game that follows June Parker, a New York socialite living in London. June's world has turned upside down when she learns of her sister's murder. June must immediately return to New York, but she has no idea that this is the first in a long line of troubling mysteries. This is your chance to test your detective skills, and if you play well enough, you could make it to the detective club. There, you'll chat with other players and compete with or against them. June needs your help, but watch out. You never know which character might be a villain. Find out as you escape this world and dive into June's world of mystery, murder, and romance. It's all just one tap away. Discover your inner detective when you download June's journey for free today on iOS and Android. That's June's journey, download the game for free on iOS and Android.
SPEAKER_01
01:13 - 01:46
On the 12th season of 10-fold more wicked, we investigate a series of compelling mysteries from the city of Fall River Massachusetts, where problems started generations before Lizzy Borden's murders made her a household name. Join me as we cover the misfortunes that have befallen this infamous town from more than 150 years, including the great fire of 1843. Season 12 is out now on exactly right. New episodes on Mondays follow 10 fold more wicked on Apple podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
SPEAKER_04
01:57 - 01:57
Thank you.
SPEAKER_02
02:32 - 07:12
Hi, I'm Erin Welch, and this is this podcast with Kill You. You're listening to the latest episode in our T.P.W.K. Y book club series where we chat with authors about their popular books in science and medicine. We've gotten to have some fantastic conversation so far, and there are so many more to come. If you'd like to see the full list of books we've already covered, and those that we'll be covering later this season as a part of the series, check out our website. This podcast will kill you.com, where you can find a link to our bookshop.org affiliate account under the extras tab. On our bookshop page, there are a bunch of TPWKY lists. featuring books we've read for our regular episodes, memoirs about health and disease, a list of fiction books about disease, should we do a book club on disease-themed novels? Is anyone out there? A member of a book club on disease-themed novels because that sounds like so much fun. And also on our bookshop is of course a book club list where you can find all of the books we're featuring in this and last season's T.P.W. K.Y. Book Club series. As always, we'd love to hear from you about how you're enjoying these episodes, whether you have any book suggestions for future episodes, favorite episodes so far, whatever your thoughts are, send them to us via the contact us form on our website. All right, let's get into the book of the week. Dr. Paul Offett joins us to discuss his recent book, Tell Me When It's Over, an insider's guide to deciphering COVID myths and navigating our post pandemic world. Frequent listeners of the podcast are no doubt familiar with Dr. Offitt's name. We've mentioned a few of his previous books in some of our episodes, such as his book Vaccinated, one man's quest to defeat the world's deadliest diseases, which tells the story of Maurice Hilliman, who developed many of the most common vaccines in use today. or maybe you've heard us mention deadly choices, how the anti-vaccine movement threatens us all, which takes readers through the history and rise of anti-vaccine sentiment. And Dr. Offett is somewhat of a public health celebrity appearing on popular news programs, championing the life-saving power of vaccines. Off its titles and credentials are almost too long to list. The Maurice Heliman Professor of Vaccinology, Professor of Pediatrics at the Paralympic School of Medicine at the University of Pennsylvania. Director of the Vaccine Education Center at the Children's Hospital of Philadelphia. member of the FDA vaccines and related biological products advisory committee and so many others. But perhaps one of his biggest accomplishments is as co-inventor of a road of virus vaccine, which has prevented hundreds of thousands of deaths around the world. Office passion for communicating about the power and safety of vaccines, as well as combating the miss and disinformation undermining public health efforts, takes shape in his newest book about the COVID pandemic. In the aptly named, tell me when it's over, often takes readers through what we have learned about the COVID pandemic and SARS-CoV-2, the virus at the center of it all. He breaks down where this virus originated, dismantles the lab leak conspiracy theory. discusses some of the ways that the public lost confidence in U.S. government institutions during the pandemic explores this new flavor of anti-vaccine sentiment that took hold during COVID and which has really only grown since and presents ways that we can fight against the rise in anti-science and regain public trust. The COVID pandemic revealed how we can accomplish incredible feats by investing time and resources into public health, giving us a safe and effective vaccine and record speed. But it also showed the gaps in our system. How myths and disinformation can quickly fill an knowledge void and how crucial it is to learn how to communicate our science to the public. including when science doesn't know it all or gets it wrong. COVID is here to stay. And unless we do something about it, so is this rise in anti-science and anti-vaccine sentiment. Let's get into this interview right after this break.
SPEAKER_03
07:24 - 07:25
you
SPEAKER_02
07:37 - 08:00
Dr. Offett, I really can't express how excited I am to be chatting with you today. You are a huge public health hero of mine. And the incredible and impactful science communication work that you do, especially when it comes to vaccines, not to mention your work on developing, said life-saving vaccines, it is simply amazing. So thank you so much for being here.
SPEAKER_00
08:00 - 08:02
Well, thanks for asking me. It's my pleasure.
SPEAKER_02
08:03 - 08:18
Your latest book, tell me when it's over, covers the COVID pandemic, getting to the root of some COVID myths, explaining the vaccine, and it essentially acts as a guide for how we're supposed to get used to this post pandemic world. How did you decide that you wanted to write this book?
SPEAKER_00
08:19 - 11:07
What was cathartic? I mean, I, you know, the virus came into the US early 2020. In April, Francis Collins, who was then head of the NIH, asked me to be part of this public-private partnership called Act of ACTIV, which stood for accelerating COVID-technological innovations and vaccines. And so, you know, we were essentially advising pharmaceutical companies on how best to test vaccines and potential, uh, it evolves. And I'm on the FDA's Vaccine Advisory Committee. So I really got to watch this up close. And in many ways, the book was cathartic. I don't know if you remember where the way it played out in 2020 aside from having nothing, right? We didn't have antiviral stock. However, we didn't have monoclonal steel November. We didn't have vaccines till December. So it nothing other than avoiding human to human contact. And then in April, the Trump administration was convinced that hydroxychloroquine was our ticket out, right? This was going to be the magic medicine that was going to make it all go away. And so the government bought almost 30 million doses of hydroxychloroquine and successfully twisted the arm of the FDA to authorize it. with that any evidence that it worked, with that any evidence that it worked either treat or prevent the disease. You certainly need already knew about the safety issues, which were potential hardware demands. And so they approved it. And that's scared people. It's scared me. I wrote an op-ed for the New York Times saying fearing an October surprise here that Trump administration successfully Twisted the arm of the FDA to approve a drug that didn't necessarily work to treat a preventive disease. That's their job. I mean, the job of the FDA is stand to stand between pharmaceutical companies and the public and protect the public. You know, you're scared about how the vaccine's going to play out, right? I mean, the Trump pulled Stephen Hahn into his office and in an convective late in tirade said, I want this vaccine out before the election, which was the beginning of November. And were that to be true, then you wouldn't have that two month safety follow-up that you have for pretty much every vaccine after the last dose, which wouldn't be till December. So to Han stuck up to his credits, stood up to him, put it on their website, this is what we're going to do. But people still didn't, now you really had a critical loss of trust in the FDA. Country after state after state. stood up and said, we're going to have our own vaccine advisory committees. They didn't trust us. They didn't trust the FDA vaccine advisory committee. And so it was a really turbulent time and and between that and a number of what I think were communications errors, including not trivial ones that occurred after that. I just this was a catharsis. I just had to get this book out. I feel much better now. Thank you for letting me write it.
SPEAKER_02
11:08 - 11:22
And as you began putting this book together and deciding what you wanted to include, how was your approach guided by your intended audience? And was that audience is your audience for this book different than for past books that you've written?
SPEAKER_00
11:22 - 13:05
Now, I think it's the same, I think it's the same for my book. I guess the audience will decide that, but it's for a general audience. It's kind of What happened? I think in many ways the book is a story of two remarkable contrasting things. One is that we isolate of ours in January of 2020. We sequence it. So now you can potentially make a vaccine. It's an unusual virus. It had an interesting sort of biological and clinical characteristics. And then 11 months later, using a technology, messenger RNA that we never used before. We had no experience with that technology. We're with the vector virus, you know, approached by Johnson and Johnson. You had two large clinical trials, and then the in February of 2021, you had a large J&J Johnson and Johnson trial. The show that the vaccines were effective. remarkably effective, and then over a period of six or seven months, we immunize 70% of the US population, who's a million people a day, two million people a day, three million people a day, and then, and I think that, I think that was the most significant scientific and medical accomplishment in my lifetime. And I'm old, so my lifetime includes the development of the polio vaccine. I think it was amazing, actually. Then we hit a wall. And by mid 2021, 30% of this country did not want to get vaccinated. Ultimately, 300,000 people lost their lives because they didn't trust us. They didn't trust the FDA, they didn't trust the CDC, they didn't trust other public health agencies. Why? What happened? How did we lose that trust? And I think that's why wrote the book. What happened? How did we lose it? And how can we get it back?
SPEAKER_02
13:05 - 16:17
Let's take a quick break here. We'll be back before you know it. When it comes to true crime, there is a lot of content out there. And it's important to look for stories that are told with the nuanced depth and detail that the people affected by these crimes deserve. For a fresh and thoughtful perspective, check out the new podcast Murder True Crime Stories at Crime House Original. Join host Carter Roy as he goes beyond the headlines, searching for the real story and focusing on the people impacted the most. You'll learn more about compelling cases like the disappearance and murder of government intern Shandra Levy or the Tylenol Poisonings that killed seven people. Whether or not the case is solved, you'll come away with an understanding of why these stories need to be told. Listen every Tuesday, as murder true crime stories unravels chilling narratives, examines compelling clues, and most importantly seeks the truth. There's a story behind every one of these cases, but is there an ending. New episodes are available now of murder true crime stories and more release every Tuesday. This series is a crime house original powered by paved studios. Just search for murder true crime stories on Apple podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. Picture this, you're a young woman living in 1920's London. You've embraced your post-war independence and started dabbling in activities that were previously reserved for men, like driving. You're also rocking a chic, chin-length bob and a, of course, flapper dress. But this isn't just a hypothetical, you can take on this persona when you play June's journey. June's journey is a mobile mystery game that follows June Parker, a New York socialite living in London. June's world has turned upside down when she learns of her sister's murder. June must immediately return to New York, but she has no idea that this is the first in a long line of troubling mysteries. This is your chance to test your detective skills, and if you play well enough, you could make it to the detective club. There, you'll chat with other players and compete with or against them. June needs your help, but watch out. You never know which character might be a villain. Find out as you escape this world and dive into June's world of mystery, murder, and romance. It's all just one tap away. Discover your inner detective when you download June's journey for free today on iOS and Android. That's June's journey download the game for free on iOS and Android. Welcome back, everyone. I'm here chatting with Dr. Paul Offett about his book, Tell Me When It's Over. Let's jump back into some questions. Like you said, you've been in the vaccine game for quite some time and you've witnessed firsthand and have written and spoken a lot about this rise in anti-vaccine sentiment over the past few decades. But now post-COVID and during COVID, we're seeing a drop in vaccine compliance rates unlike anything previously witnessed. What do you think is unique about this decline and why was COVID this perfect storm to grow anti-vaccine and anti-science sentiment?
SPEAKER_00
16:18 - 18:56
Well, I would have imagined the opposite was true. I mean, typically, what anti-vaccine activists will say is, give me a pandemic. Then I get the idea of being vaccinated or even mandating vaccine vaccines. Give me show me a pandemic. Well, this was a pandemic. We had more than 1.1 million people dying. This country people were dying right in front of us. I think all of us at least know someone who was at least seriously ill and died of it. My aunt died of this virus and so you didn't have to convince people I would think that it was real and the vaccine clearly worked and it was safe it wasn't absolutely safe but it was pretty darn safe the mRNA vaccines it was my carditis within four days of dose two which was generally self resolving and short lived but in the scheme of things considering there was a novel technology for a novel virus we I never really saw the other shoe drop So so you had, you had your ticket out of this pandemic and nonetheless people will reject it. And I think the reason was because you're right, I think the anti-vaccine movement is stronger, they're better funded and they're stronger. And I think it all has to do with this, which is politics. I think there, although there's always a political implication for vaccines because they require support, you know, that they You're going anything I think that requires funding. Public funding is going to be political, but it doesn't have to be partisan. But this was partisan. You know, on the left it had vaccine activity was always, you know, just don't inject me with anything with a chemical name, you know, so, which is pretty much water, of course, has a chemical name. And on the right it was this libertarian, I don't want the government to tell me what to do. That is the current politics, which is federal government off my back. And so that's where all the money came from. Eric Trump at Donald Trump's son stood up at one of the Braalies and said, if you don't want to get a vaccine, know that the Republican party has your back, which is amazing because it was the Trump administration that created this vaccine with Operation Warp Speed. And yet, if anything, Donald Trump distance himself from arguably his greatest accomplishment. So they're very well funded. They're more active than ever. And I think that at the heart of it is mandates. I think when we mandated that vaccine and people lost their jobs and people couldn't go to the bar, they wanted to go to the restaurant, they wanted to go to the sporting events closed down. You know, schools closed, travel was restricted. People felt they, you know, they were mandated to make wear masks, mandated to get a vaccine and not leaned into this libertarian left talk and this is what you have. A well-funded sort of libertarian anti-vaccine campaign that has now been embraced by the right.
SPEAKER_02
18:57 - 19:12
And I kind of wanted to get into this a little bit more when it comes to like how this misinformation spread and the role of social media. What do you think social media is doing to kind of facilitate the spread of this bad scientific information?
SPEAKER_00
19:14 - 20:46
Right, you can very easily find awful information about vaccines that will fit any conspiracy theory. If you're hesitant about getting a vaccine, it's understandable that you would be hesitant. I mean, you're asking people who are otherwise healthy to inject themselves with a biological. In this case, the biological is something which we had no experience and it's a genetic vaccine. And the minute you say that word, genetic people are thinking, It's going to alter my genes and that's part of the argument that people have made, right? There's DNA fragments in this vaccine that will alter your genome and we're that the mRNA can enter your nucleus and get reverse transcribed and then enter your DNA and That would be the best news for Gene therapy ever if that actually was possible with this mRNA vaccines. But it's very easy to get that notion out there that this vaccines can do harm. The CDC director in 2009 was a man named Richard Besser, and that's when we had this wine flu pandemic. And he was great. He was out there every other day. Every third day in front of the media answering their questions. This is what the vaccine is. This is how we're distributing it. This is how it's made. This is what the virus is doing. This is where the virus is now. There's where we expect the virus going to be. He was the model of how you communicate what we were doing and why we were doing it. So I saw him at a national foundation of infectious disease meeting a couple of months ago. And I said that to him. I said, you were great. You were a model. He said, thank you. I could never do it today. Two reasons, politics and social media.
SPEAKER_02
20:47 - 21:43
You know, I want to go back to something that you mentioned, which is about how this anti vaccine movement is so much better funded these days. And, you know, when it comes to other subjects that are popular with the anti science crowd, so things like human induced climate change or historically cigarettes and lung cancer, feel like it's easier to see it's easier to make those connections. to see the motivations of the people or the groups that are spreading disinformation. With climate change, of course, the fossil fuel industry doesn't want to lose profits as a result of changing policies. And that's more or less the same thing with Big Tobacco. As soon as that link about lung cancer and cigarettes came out, it was like, let's quash this pretty clear motivation there. But I feel like identifying the drivers of the anti-vaccine disinformation campaigns. It's not a straightforward. So how can we categorize some of those drivers?
SPEAKER_00
21:43 - 23:15
No, that's a really good point. I haven't thought of it that way. But you're right. I mean, what exactly is the financial motivation here? Assuming there's always a financial motivation. And I think it's just an expression of this notion of autonomy, sort of personal freedoms, and that Uber Alas, I think that's just sort of become the mantra of the Republican right, and I think that's why, or especially although the right, I'll just say, and so that's their current mantra. I think it just fits into their zeitgeist. I'm not sure that there is any financial motivation, but there's certainly a lot of money to support it. I mean, more so than ever, there is, you know, there was an article, Ramana Graf by a group called the Center for Countering Digital Hate. And they had what they called the disinformation dozen. And so it was 12 people or groups that a counter for about 70% of the misinformation it was out there. Their funding was often the same. They all got pretty much funding from the same source, which was the dietary supplement industry, which in many ways is the same thing, because there are two as a matter of medical freedoms. We don't want the FDA telling us what we can or can say. because when we say things like, you know, this will make your prostate smaller or this will make your immune system better, we want to be able to say that even though we have no evidence that that's true. And so the FDA sort of pushes back and doesn't really let you say that you have to be vague or right, it supports prostate health, neon health, you know, heart health, whatever. And so they really are in many ways aligned with this group, which also likes to make claims that are unsupported.
SPEAKER_02
23:16 - 23:54
And I feel like so much of this has to do too with how uncertainty is communicated in popular media, where scientists and people trained as scientists or as medical practitioners are sort of it's ingrained in us to be more conservative in saying this causes this or this is the evidence for this or there's a strong relationship. And I kind of wanted, this is like a very roundabout way of getting to my question, which is sort of about the way you think that scientists are trained in how to communicate with the public or the popular media and how we can do better with that.
SPEAKER_00
23:55 - 27:11
I think our training is scientists is the opposite of the training that we need to educate the public and the media about scientific issues. Because when you write a scientific paper, or publish a scientific paper, the biggest sin you can commit is to ever go beyond the data in front of you. So you are a good scientific paper is one that theory draws a conclusion. And then the discussion section is full of caveats, right? I'm really can't say this or this or this because my data limit me in terms of what I can say about that. And so we're always very careful. That's number one. That doesn't come off well at least in a popular press or in the media because it sounds like you wish you washer. It sounds like you're not sure of what you're saying. The other thing is it's just the nature of the scientific method, which is that you formulate hypothesis and then you can do two things with that hypothesis. You can reject it or not reject it. But you can never accept it, which is to say you can never prove never. Because the null hypothesis is paramount, and you can't ever accept the null hypothesis. So I mean, as an example, as a little boy, I watched TV show Superman, which was black and white, and Christopher Reeves, it was before Chris Reeves, George Reeves, and he flew. And when you're five years old and you're watching TV, TV does not lie. And so he had his cape and his hair would fly and he would look at the city below and he would he would fly. So what I did was I went into backyard and on a small chair I stood up and I put a towel around me and put my hands in front of me using the inner locking thumb grip which I thought was critical to the whole experience because that's what he did. And I jumped a few times and didn't fly. at this, you know, spoiler alert, I didn't fly. Now, I could have done it a million times. That wouldn't have proven that I couldn't fly. It would only have made it almost statistical and likely. I could have done it a billion times, 10 billion times. Because the scientific method does not allow me to say, I can't fly, at least not without a plane. But I can't fly. And so I can say that. And I think you have to get used to that. So for example, you can't say the MMOR vaccine doesn't cause autism. All you can say is that there are 18 studies that have been done on seven countries, on three continents and bobbling hundreds of thousands of people at the show that you're no more likely to develop autism if you've gotten the vaccine. If you have, that's what you can say. And so I had a test by once in front of Dan Burton's committee office of government reform. about that issue. Andrew Wakefield had just published his paper. He was on the other side. I was on the side of good trying to explain what we knew about MMR vaccine or we knew about autism. And Colleen Boyle, who was great from the CDC, you know, she got up and she explained what the early data showed in terms of there was no association, no statistical association with those two things. But then Burton heard weakness in that. And he said, so you can't tell me. You can't tell me it doesn't cause it. Do you? Could you have, and I quote, an out in the back of this thing. And so that, you know, it's hard that you have to get used to that at some level that you are saying things that at some level scientifically can't say. And for scientists, that's hard.
SPEAKER_02
27:11 - 27:50
Let's take a quick break. And when we get back, there's still so much to discuss. Welcome back, everyone. I've been chatting with Dr. Paul Offett about his book, Tell me when it's over, and Insiders Guide to deciphering COVID myths and navigating our post-pandemic world. Let's get back into things. What do you think is the appeal of conspiracy theories like the microchip in a COVID vaccine?
SPEAKER_00
27:51 - 30:34
Well, conspiracy theories are easy to understand. They explain something clearly. They give you a handle on it, even if it's not true. I mean, I think the best example at the beginning of this pandemic was a notion that it was a lab leak. This wasn't a lab leak. I mean, it was, I was actually just on morning, Joe this morning at like quarter ten, and that was his question. He said to me, I use it thoughtful, smart man, he said, you know, I've had people say to me, people in the medical field are in the scientific field, say to me sort of on the side, as if this is our secret, you know, that we're trying to hide this, that, you know, this, what this may have well have leaked from a lab. And, you know, it's, it's, first of all, it's never happened. Never has a pandemic virus ever been created in the laboratory. Two is all the evidence is on the other side, right? I mean, you hear you have the Western section of the Hunan seafood market where there were dozens of animals that were sold illegally and very close on sanitary conditions. And the kinds of animals, you know, red foxes, red condolves that can catch and transmit a virus like SARS-CoV-2. I mean, source one was an animal to human spill over event 2002. MERS was an animal to human spill over event 2012. I mean, you know, it's not like the black plague was, you know, created in a medieval bio-containment lab. You know, these things are invariably animal to human spill over. And you have, you know, this sort of pictures that were taken of that western section of the market that were sent to to people in the United States, media people in the United States, so you see how unsanitary those conditions were, and the Chinese really did look at for genetic evidence of this virus, SARS-CoV-2 virus, in things like the machines that kill the animals, the brushes that brush the animals, or the tables in which the animals were sacrificed or the cages themselves, and found evidence of SARS-CoV-2 virus there. So it was creating a lab that the laboratory person had to do was then travel nine miles to where this Wuhan seafood market was across the Axi River and then deposit it in a place exactly where you would expect an animal to human spill over ventricre. So this is not a scientific kind of reason. You don't have You know, the clear smoking gun. I mean, you don't have like a raccoon dog standing up like at the end of crime and punishment and saying, it was me that killed the seafood vendor, right? So you don't have that. But you have a confluence of evidence that tells you it's all on one side. And actually my best, the best comment I've heard is that this is a promiscuous virus. I mean, it's not if you were trying to target it to humans, it's targeted to at least three dozen other animal species. And so the lime was, if this was created in the lab, it was created by an underperforming graduate student. I think that's unlike that.
SPEAKER_02
30:34 - 31:19
Yeah, I mean, we have so, like you said, we have so many road maps for how this happened and people have been predicting something like this for decades. But, you know, I think that going back to sort of this cognitive dissonance between people were hoping and hoping for a vaccine and when it finally came out when it was finally available, there would be someone who, as their relative is dying in a hospital, this person would be simultaneously tweeting about microchips or tweeting about fatal side effects from the vaccine. Like, where does that cognitive dissonance come from? Maybe that's just like a philosophical question that we can't answer, but it's just something that I find really hard to kind of like grapple with.
SPEAKER_00
31:20 - 33:34
But I think part of it is we definitely lost trust. And I think that there's a few reasons for that. One is that there's just a general anti-institutional bias. So it's not just the FDA and CDC that's lost trust and Department of Justice, FBI, etc. There is this flood of disinformation at a level, I think we've never seen before. It's never been better funded before. But the third is that I think we did make communications mistakes. And that's one reason why you lost stress. And therefore, those conspiracy theories become more attractive. So for example, to me, the biggest one occurred in July of 2021 when thousands of men go to a problem-style Massachusetts to celebrate the July 4th holiday. 79% were already vaccinated. Nonetheless, there's a COVID outbreak. So 346 men who were in attendance got COVID all of whom had been vaccinated, four were hospitalized. So that's a hospitalization rate at 1.2%. That's a vaccine working very, very well. Right? I mean, the vaccines are the one you wanted to do keeping out of the hospital. The other 342 had milder asymptomatic infection, which when the CDC reported this, the headline and MMM morbidity and mortality weekly report was, breakthrough infections. They call these asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic infections breakthrough infections as if this vaccine had failed. I mean, breakthrough was a very negative word. Whereas the goal of this vaccine was to keep you out of the hospital. The goal of this vaccine was to prevent serious infections and the vaccine was doing exactly that. I mean, if you, if you watch Brett Kavanaugh, for example, Supreme Court justice, you know, he's entering the Supreme Court chamber. He's routinely screened and found to be positive around the same time. And they called that a bit of breakthrough infection. If you watch the way that the scene and carried that story, you would thought the man was fighting for his life. I mean, Lindsey Graham actually had, again, because this is mid 2021, two-dose vaccine time. He got two-dose vaccine. He had a three or four-day illness that was characterized by sinusitis. And he said, and I quote, this would have been much worse if I hadn't been vaccinated. Right. Lindsey Graham got it exactly right. And how often do you get to say that?
SPEAKER_02
33:36 - 34:03
Even a broken clock is right twice a day, I guess. Yeah, I think that that sort of messaging has still had lingering effects. You know, I remember seeing a news report, maybe a couple weeks back about the latest booster and how it prevented symptoms and X number of people who received it. And it's, it's still perpetuating this, this notion that vaccines are there to entirely prevent any sort of symptomatic disease and that's not the case.
SPEAKER_00
34:04 - 35:36
This upsets me more than anything else. I mean, it's a shooting innovation period, new coastline faction. Mild infection is prevented by high levels of virus-specific circulating neutralizing antibodies at the time of exposure. And antibodies don't last that long. They will fade over 46 months. I think we were fooled in a sense in December of 2020 when those two large clinical trials were presented with Pfizer, Moderna, Pfizer, 40,000 person, Moderna, 30,000, placebo, post-bacter, placebo control trials. The efficacy was 95% against severe disease. It was also 95% against mild disease. And the reason is, is those were three months studies. Those participants had just gotten their second dose. That's why it was so good. So six months later, five studies showed that protection against severe disease was holding up well in the 90% range. But protection against mild is it had faded to 50%. That had to happen and see that in combination with mandating vaccines, you have to get this vaccine or else you don't get to go to work. And then people would, would did it. They got the vaccine. Then they had a mild illness to said, say, the CDC told me that this vaccine was going to protect me. Now, I didn't. I'm having this breakthrough illness. I mean, it really angered people. Actually, if you watch away, for example, Rhonda Santas, doing his stomach speeches would often say, you all know the CDC told us this vaccine was going to work and it didn't. Well, it did. It worked to prevent severe disease. Actually, if you look at the way that they're currently messaging the flu vaccine, the CDC, it's exactly right. Their slogan is, wild to mild.
SPEAKER_02
35:37 - 35:55
I wanted to ask you about something you discussed in your book, which is this difference between a deficit of knowledge and a deficit of trust when it comes to the COVID vaccine. And I was wondering whether you could explain a bit more about what you mean by that and also how unequal access to healthcare plays into this.
SPEAKER_00
35:56 - 38:28
Right, I think probably the most telling studies were that those who chose not to get a vaccine often had little contact with the healthcare system, which I think is an underlining kind of the sorry state of healthcare in this country. I mean, we don't have a national healthcare system, so not everybody easily gets healthcare. And so therefore there's that deficit of knowledge because you aren't able to ask that your doctor, you know, should I get this vaccine? There was a story I tell in this about a nurse named or an intensivist named Brittany Kobe in Alabama who, you know, who would often see people come into the hospital had unvaccinated, you know, suffering and dying. And she said the question that I always asked was did you talk to somebody about this? Somebody in the healthcare profession and the answer was invariably no. And so I think You know, if you look at, for example, people over 65, they're certainly more likely to, it's the older you are, the more likely you are to be Republican. Two, the older you are, the more like over 65, you're more likely to work as much, much, much. But misinformation isn't destiny. I mean, they're also very likely to be vaccinated. There's 95% of people over 65 are vaccinated because we have Medicare in the United States. And so they often can get health care. And I think that's, That's key, but I think it is fixable. And the story I tell is one of A.L. Stanford, who's an African-American surgeon in Temple at Temple University with her own money, formed something called the Black Doctors COVID Consortium. So with many of her colleagues, She went into North Philadelphia, a predominantly black and brown community with little contact with the healthcare system other than an emergency basis. And she just sat in people living in rooms and tried to convince them of why they should get the vaccine. So they're seeing someone who looks like her, who they're there for trust. And eventually, you know, they didn't, if they said, no, she'd come back again, or she'd come back again. And she ultimately vaccinated 50,000 people in North Philadelphia, this, this, but she's a hero. She is an American hero. I just wish that there were a thousand, a list of anthrets. who could get out there and do what she did. Because I think that's the solution. I mean, yes, the CDC and the FDA should explain and detail what they're doing and why they're doing it. And yes, I think local and state government should do that. But I think that the, the, the, the, the, a list offered represents the solution to this problem, which is we have to find who those people are in those communities that are trustworthy and then get them the resources they need to get into those communities and tell people why vaccination is important.
SPEAKER_02
38:29 - 39:14
Absolutely. I could not agree more. And I think that, you know, part of the challenge with that is kind of something we've already touched on, which is the lack of training for researchers or medical professionals in how to communicate information to the public where, you know, we learn about how vaccines work. We learn about how epidemiological studies work, how clinical trials are carried out, but we don't necessarily learn how to explain that to someone who isn't sitting next to us in the same classroom or even explaining it to them. And so how do you think these sort of opportunities can be improved upon at every level from like training to development of these programs to execution?
SPEAKER_00
39:16 - 41:15
Right, well, I think as always, it probably starts at the beginning. I mean, my father since past when he thought in World War II, but he explained to me that as a elementary school in high school student, he was actually taught critical thinking, taught the scientific method. We often don't do that anymore. I think that would help. And I think I do think that so for example, if you see the CDC recently changed their guidelines in terms of how long one should quarantine associated with that being infected and they said something it made a ton of sense which is One AFB all done. Let's see why that makes sense to me is that the virus occurs in two stages. This is true for all viruses, but so the first stage is the virus replication stage, right? We produce itself over and over again. Then what happens is the immune response stage, which is when you get symptoms. It's when you when you make antibodies against this virus or through you have cytotoxid T cells that kill virus infects cells. That's when you have symptoms. So now, as the symptoms increase, because the symptoms are based on your immune response, trying to eliminate the virus, virus replication decreases. So there are argument is, and it's reasonable one, if you have one A-fabrahal Day, if you've been Fabrahal and you had fever, wouldn't it make sense that the immune system is abating? And if the immune system is abating, it doesn't that tell you that virus replication is really not a critical part of the disease process anymore. So you're much less likely to be shedding virus. That makes sense, rather than saying quarantine for seven days, 10 days, 14 days. Because first of all, viruses don't replicate on the basis of the metric system for the lunar month. So it wouldn't make sense. There's just peg it to the person rather than to this arbitrary number. So I like that, but explain it. You know, I mean, get out there and explain it because, or else, you have, you have then other people trying to explain it for you that may not understand it as well.
SPEAKER_02
41:16 - 41:54
But I want to kind of circle back to this issue of politics and public health. And politics has been involved in public health in the U.S. for hundreds of years, even before the U.S. was the U.S. just looked back to smallpox inoculation during the American Revolutionary War. And I think that for a lot of us, the political discourse during the COVID pandemic revealed just how much public health policies are influenced by the politics of the day. As we head into this election year, what public health discussions do you think that we'll hear more about or will be central to campaign issues?
SPEAKER_00
41:56 - 44:01
Um, you're absolutely right. And I think politics has always been part of public health because public health requires resources, and therefore there'll always be a political component, but there doesn't have to be a partisan component, which is what I think has happened here. I don't know what's going to happen. I fear that what's happening is that science is losing its place as a source of truth. mean Kelly and Conway said it best well we have our alternative facts the birth of the term alternative facts which somehow is acceptable and I think With that erosion interest, the road which science is becoming now just sort of another voice in the room, anything is possible. And I think we just saw it. We just saw people denying the impact of this virus when 1.1 million people died. When 300,000 people lost their lives because they chose not to get vaccinated because they chose to lose their lives. I mean, that's a frightening time. Worst, I think, you know, you know how hundreds and hundreds of pieces of legislation that have pushed back one vaccine mandates, masking mandates, isolation or quarantine procedures and vaccines. I mean, these are the important weapons in public health that are being stripped away at some level. We want freedom, but we don't want protection. And I fear that's kind of where we're heading. So what changes all this? I think, again, I'm an optimist. I mean, I'm a Philadelphia Eagle season ticket holder, so by definition, I'm an optimist, but I do think these things have to occur Very early on, where we educate people about science and educate people about, you know, how to think critically. And I think some of that is gone. I don't, maybe, I think I became a better critical thinker as a scientist than when I was an MD. When I was just doing clinical work, I think I was more of an anecdotal thinker, more of a pattern recognized, right? I think once I, moved into a basic scientific working on road viruses. I think I became much better at sort of higher workically establishing burdens of proof, formula to hypothesis, projecting those proofs to analysis. I became a clear thinker somewhere in there. But I'm not sure I learned that in medical school.
SPEAKER_02
44:03 - 45:23
I really loved what you just said about how science being just another voice in the room. And I feel like this is a future that we have created for the past several decades where in general there's been sort of this demand for and acceptance of debate, where we need an equal sides debate, where on one side is the scientific evidence and the other side is whatever agenda, somebody is pushing, whether that's big tobacco, whether that's people who don't believe in evolution. There's this kind of false equal footing debate that doesn't really exist because the science has already been debated over decades of peer review, over decades of conferences and basically what science actually does. I think that we have now gotten to the point where it's not even just a two sides debate, but it's science versus a thousand different agendas. And I agree that I really worry about what that's going to look like in the future. And I feel like if we say that training students and creating these critical thinking courses in younger students, that how many generations then will it take for this to make an impact in policy? That's, that's I think one of my big worries about this.
SPEAKER_00
45:23 - 49:20
You know, it, it, this sort of a quarrel area to your worry. I think science, when I would do scientific studies and then go to, you know, double stranded RNA meetings, you know, to present the science of working rotavirus and so you would draw a conclusion and then you would present your data and people would challenge your data. So it's not really debating science, maybe in the way you mean it, I think, but you know, they would challenge the criteria on which you base your conclusion. Did you do there, was it internally consistent? Was it robust? Did you do the right controls, et cetera? And that's what you wanted that. You wanted to hear that because that's how your scientific studies got better. That does not work well in a public health arena. It doesn't. And I think the best example that for me, well, two recent examples, but one is the byvalent vaccine. I mean, the byvalent vaccine was the thinking was reasonable, right? Oma Cron, BA1, the original Oma Cron came into the country in December 2021. It was an immune-vasive strain, even if you'd been naturally infected, vaccinated with alpha or delta, you weren't particularly protected against mild disease from Oma Cron, so shouldn't we include Oma Cron in the vaccine? Perfectly reasonable. So the thinking was, all right, let's do a half a dose of the ancestral strain, half a dose of one of the Oma Cron variants, which became BA4, BA5. Um, not a bad idea. Didn't work out. I mean, if you looked at the data that were presented to our committee in June of 2022, um, it didn't look like immunologically, you were more likely to develop an immune response, a neutralizing antibody response to this Omicron variant, if you got the monoval vaccine, if you got the bival vaccine, because of imprinting. That's what happened. So I was a no vote. I voted no for that. Now the next day, the government bought 105 million doses of five weeks vaccine, you know, but, remember, I'm an advisory committee. So we just give advice. So, you know, as anybody who's in medicine knows, people don't have to follow your advice. But, and then the clinical studies were done. There was one in the U.S., one in the U.K., one in France showing that you were no better off getting the bivenal effects in their monoval effects. And so I said that. I mean, I said that nationally, I wrote a perspective piece of the New England Journal of Medicine that said that and it was published at the same time that David Ho in Columbia or in Dan Grook in Harvard published their paper showing there was no difference immunologically in those two vaccines in inducing an immune response likely neutralizing a protective immune response against the Omicron variant. Okay, that's okay. It's okay not to get it right the first time you learn as you go there's always a learning curve It's invariably steep with this kind of incident novel virus. It's a novel vaccine strategy. It's a novel disease. We're trying to learn as we go. And so explain that. We didn't get this exactly right, but we've learned. And so you don't see byvel of vaccines anymore. But that's not what we did. What we did was we kept saying it was better because we wanted it to be better. And when I was saying publicly that it's not better, not worse. boosters boost it's a value for people who are in high risk groups you know I was hammered by the by public health officials who were really angry me because what did I done I'd gotten off the bus it's a divisive time you're on the bus or you're off the bus and and they felt I'd be because we wanted people to be vaccinated And I get that, but don't misrepresent the data, because you're only going to lose trust not only the public, but the scientists who see what the data are. So just be honest and know that you're not going to get away. But see that? The fluidity of that, the fluidity of scientific discovery, of learning as you go, is disconcerting to the public. I mean, I think if you ask people, do you think we're going to know more about science or medicine? 50 or 100 years from now that we know now, I think everybody would say yes, but when it comes to your disease or our pandemic, they want to believe you know everything you need to know right now. If you don't, then you got it wrong that I don't believe you anymore.
SPEAKER_02
49:20 - 49:34
I was wondering, do you have like any tips of your such a great science communicator? Do you have any tips for science communication that you that you have found over the years like work really well or even just like general advice?
SPEAKER_00
49:35 - 52:03
Well, I think don't be afraid to explain the science. I mean, when this whole thing, there's a surgeon general in Florida, these Florida actually is one of the, I think only four states actually has a surgeon general whose name is Dr. Joseph Ladepo. So he's become famous for his notion that he put out there and sent something to all these sort of healthcare people in Florida that the mRNA vaccines are contaminated with DNA fragments, which First of all, it's a manufacturing residual. It's not also pricing anything that's made from cells and it's certainly the plasma DNA that is the beginning of the process of mRNA vaccines. That doesn't just completely disappear as you go through the manufacturing process. There's nanogram levels of fragmented DNA as it's true in any vaccine that is made from cells. measles, mumps, or bellies, or cellar rotavirus, all those have small fragments of DNA. And in fact, we eat foreign DNA all the time, assuming you eat anything made from plants or animals on this planet, which is pretty much everybody, which ends up in your circulation, by the way. And it fragments much larger, and in quantities much larger that you're ever getting into vaccine. But in any way, see if you put it out there, right? DNA fragments can essentially insert themselves into your DNA and cause cancer. So explain that. Now, you can explain how the site applies and doesn't like foreign DNA, it's hard to get across the nuclear membrane of a non-dividing cell. Then you have to insert yourself into DNA, which requires some sort of enzyme like an integrated. So I was going to see an end, right, with Brianna Killer, and you don't have much time. You got about four minutes to explain why Joseph with Apple was wrong. But don't be afraid to do that. Try and explain the science simply. Don't just say, sort of the FDA when they do. Well, this is fine. I mean, they say, you know, vaccines are carefully tested. Safety, we know, you know, we know that this exists. But so when they do that, when they don't express the science, explain the science they're basically saying trust me. and people don't trust you. So when you give them something to hang on to, even if they don't necessarily understand all those words, they like integrate. You know, an enzyme like an integration, but it is an English sort of sounding thing, right, integrate into something. So just, I say, don't be afraid of that. Don't be afraid to say that people appreciate that. I think they appreciate not being talked down to by making it too simple.
SPEAKER_02
52:04 - 52:25
In your book, you discussed many different important lessons that we learned from the COVID pandemic. And this is a two-parter. So the first is, what do you think is the most important lesson that we actually did learn? And what do you think was the biggest missed opportunity or the thing that we, the lesson that we didn't learn or unlearned?
SPEAKER_00
52:27 - 53:57
But I think we learned we can make a vaccine quickly and well, and then we can distribute it quickly and well. That was good. I think that the thing that hopefully we've learned is that we need an international surveillance system. You can't, you can't depend on a whistleblower in China to tell you that there's a virus that's circulating that's killing people. And China was xenophobic, they didn't let other scientists come in. That gave rise to conspiracy. theories. I mean, that kind of inability to let foreign other researchers come in. I think it's in us. I do think, as I sort of talk about the end of the book, I mean, when 9-11 happened, we all held each other and hugged and cried. We were all in this together. I think that was also true when Pearl Harbor happened. I think we do, at some level, see ourselves as part of a larger group. And we have to. If we're going to move forward, We have to see ourselves as part of a larger group. There's nine million people in this country who can't be vaccinated. For example, because they're immunocompromised. They depend on those around the protecting. Do we have any responsibility? Then of course we do. And I think we have to just kind of do their best to sort of emphasize that we are part of a whole we benefit from being part of a whole and just make it clear that that's true. So I don't know. I mean, I think we'll see how the next the story of the next pandemic is told, but there will be an experiment. We've had three pandemic viruses in the last 20 years. There's we're not that far from the next one.
SPEAKER_02
54:16 - 55:39
Dr. Offett, thank you so much for taking the time to chat with me today. I really enjoyed our conversation about this rise in anti-science sentiment and what we can do about it. It's definitely something that is always on my mind. And for those of you who want to know when it's over and how to navigate this post pandemic world, check out our website. This podcast will kill you.com, where I'll post a link to where you can find, tell me when it's over, as well as a link to Dr. Offett's website. And don't forget, you can check out our website for all source of other cool things, including but not limited, to transcripts, quarantine and placebo rede recipes. Show notes and references for all of our episodes, links to merch. Our bookshop.org affiliate account, our Goodreads list, a first-hand account form, and music by Bloodmobile. Speaking of which, thank you to Bloodmobile for providing the music for this episode and all of our episodes. Thank you to Leona Squalachi and Tom Brifogl for our audio mixing. And thanks to you listeners for listening. I hope you liked this bonus episode and are loving being part of the T.P.W.K. Y book club. A special thank you as always to our fantastic patrons. We appreciate your support so very much we truly do. Well, until next time keep washing those hands.